H1 2026: 4X Strategy’s UA Reckoning

What the report says

Compared to mobile F2P and its parent genre, Strategy, 4X Strategy’s H1 2026 performance looks impressive. 4X Strategy downloads rose by +5% YoY (+18M), while total mobile F2P fell by -12% YoY (-3B) and Strategy by -3% YoY (-29M). IAP revenue was also up +5% YoY (+$193M), compared with declines of -2% YoY (-$0.6B) for mobile F2P and -5% YoY (-$319M) for Strategy.However, these six-month totals conceal a sharp quarter-over-quarter decline within H1 2026. The subgenre peaked during Q4 2025 and has since declined, with H1 2026’s YoY growth being concentrated in Q1.

During Q2 2026, 4X Strategy’s downloads fell -27M QoQ (-12%) versus -5% across mobile F2P and -9% for the Strategy genre. Revenue declined similarly, dropping -$195M QoQ (-10%) versus -6% across mobile F2P and -11% for the Strategy genre. Notably, 4X Strategy accounted for approximately half of the Strategy genre’s revenue decline.Examining the potential reasons for the deterioration of mobile F2P’s largest revenue-generating subgenre over H1 2026 is where 4X Strategy’s analysis gets interesting. Let’s jump in.Data caveat: Throughout this article, data excludes DTC, China Android, and ad revenues. Also, the market size figures come from Sensor Tower’s “Market Size” feature, which covers a subset of the entire mobile gaming market.

While the aggregate numbers are smaller than the broader mobile gaming market, we’ve confirmed that this subset is representative of broader market trends. We’ve also flagged where to keep the missing DTC revenue in mind when studying broader subgenre trends.4X Strategy’s Slowdown over H1 20264X Strategy’s +18M YoY downloads increase during H1 2026 was not really concentrated on a particular platform or region. The relatively minor +5% YoY growth hints towards substantial title-level movement beneath the surface. Roughly 40% of all tracked 4X Strategy titles grew at various intensities, adding +150M YoY downloads. Around 50% saw small to large download drops, collectively driving a -131M YoY decline.

Key details

The remaining 10% were flat. However, what’s interesting to note is what kinds of titles drove growth and which declined.When slicing the data by title launch year, it was primarily new 4X Strategy launches over the last two years that added +112M downloads and drove the subgenre’s H1 2026 downloads growth. This included titles like X-Clash (+26M), Kingshot (+18M), Tiles Survive! (+17M), Last Light (+15M), Last Asylum (+14M), and more. Some of these games launched after H1 2025 (adding downloads to H1 2026 versus zero contribution to H1 2025), while others continued to scale UA over H1 2026.On the other hand, 4X Strategy’s older portfolio (pre-H2 2024) offset -94M downloads of that growth.

This included games like Lords Mobile (-13M), Total Battle (-11M), Dark War: Survival (-10M), Last War: Survival (-8M), Evony (-8M), among others. Some of these games are long-standing incumbents that are naturally unable to scale UA to the same degree as newcomers, while others scaled rapidly during 2025 but could not sustain that pace into 2026.On the revenue side, ~30% of all tracked 4X Strategy titles grew at various intensities over H1 2026, adding +$962M in YoY IAP revenue. Around 45% declined, collectively removing -$769M, while the remaining ~25% were flat. The revenue story was similar to downloads; the subgenre’s older portfolio absorbed ~70% of the newer games’ revenue growth, leaving 4X Strategy up +$193M YoY over H1 2026.More specifically, newer titles released over the last two years added +$620M YoY in H1 2026, while older titles took away much of that growth (-$425M YoY).

Kingshot was the major growth contributor (+$403M), given its early 2025 launch and rapid UA scaling since. Last Z was another bright spot (+$193M YoY) — it technically belongs to our definition of the older portfolio due to its mid-2024 release, although it truly began scaling over 2025, and the game’s H1 2026 results inherited that marketing momentum. However, established incumbents declined significantly. Last War: Survival saw steep declines in downloads, MAU, and ARPDAU over H1 2026, resulting in a significant -$135M YoY (-17%) decline. Whiteout Survival was also down -$126M YoY (-16%) due to declining MAUs, primarily driven by falling downloads.Based on the graphs and notes above, two observations emerge:4X Strategy’s performance would’ve been flat to declining if not for newly released titles that successfully scaled UA during their launch years, thereby driving up overall subgenre revenue.For older 4X Strategy games, sustaining revenue seems to require regular top-of-the-funnel replenishment through stable new- and returning-player-focused UA strategies — especially when new competitors appear.

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Keeping long-term retention healthy and improving ARPDAU could even result in growth.The above represents why we found 4X Strategy’s downloads and revenue deterioration over H1 2026 surprising.